Nuclear PPA Price Index Q2 2026
Up approximately +18% year-over-year vs a reconstructed Q2 2025 baseline of ~$82/MWh. The move reflects three 20-year hyperscaler PPAs signed in the trailing twelve months plus the Duane Arnold restart agreement, all of which priced above the pre-2024 wholesale-plus-capacity clearing band that nuclear merchants had historically received.
For context: before 2024, large merchant nuclear fleets (Talen Susquehanna, Vistra PJM plants) operated at all-in costs below $24/MWh while earning energy + capacity revenue in the $45–65/MWh range. Illinois Clinton relied on a zero-emission credit to bridge the gap. Today's $95–110/MWh hyperscaler pricing represents a structural repricing of baseload carbon-free electrons — driven entirely by AI data-center demand pull.
Contract-type decomposition
| Segment | Weighted $/MWh | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Existing fleet, operating | $95 | AWS-Talen, Meta-Constellation Clinton, Meta-Vistra PJM |
| Existing fleet, restart | $106 | MSFT-Constellation TMI, Google-NextEra Duane Arnold |
| SMR (forward-start) | n/d | No Q≥3 pricing disclosed; third-party range $65–100/MWh |
| New large build (AP1000) | n/d | No signed PPAs; DOE/MIT projects $78–97/MWh LCOE with IRA |
Restart premium over operating-fleet PPAs: ~$11/MWh, a rational spread given $1.6–2.0B restart capex amortized over 20–25 year terms.
ISO breakdown
| ISO | Deals | Contracted MW | Weighted $/MWh |
|---|---|---|---|
| PJM | 3 | 5,364 | $95 |
| MISO | 2 | 1,736 | $103 |
| ERCOT | 1 (Vistra-Comanche Peak, undisclosed) | 1,200 | n/d |
Top 3 market-moving deals (trailing 12 months)
| Note | Deal | Plant | MW | Term | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Largest uprate-inclusive PPA in US corporate-nuclear history | Meta → Vistra | Perry + Davis-Besse + Beaver Valley | 2,609 | 20yr | Jan 9, 2026 |
| First grid-connected "IPP model" post-FERC BTM rejection | AWS → Talen | Susquehanna | 1,920 | 17yr | Jun 11, 2025 |
| First "replace-the-subsidy" template (Illinois ZEC transition) | Meta → Constellation | Clinton | 1,121 | 20yr | Jun 3, 2025 |
What moved the market this quarter
- Q1 2026 closed with Meta's January 9 triple-deal (Vistra + TerraPower + Oklo totaling 6.6 GW) — the single largest corporate nuclear procurement announcement in history, anchoring PJM pricing for the next 20 years.
- Google-NextEra Duane Arnold (Oct 2025) confirmed restarts have a repeatable economic model beyond TMI. Analyst consensus now treats restart PPAs as a distinct $100–115/MWh segment with its own deal flow.
- AWS-Dominion North Anna PPA (reported by secondary industry trackers in Feb 2026) remains unverified in primary filings and is excluded from the main index pending Dominion disclosure.
- FERC's final rejection of the Talen-AWS amended ISA in April 2025 closed off behind-the-meter co-location as a legally durable structure in PJM. The grid-connected restructure (June 2025) is now the industry template.
- SMR offtake deals continue to proliferate but none disclose $/MWh, keeping the SMR sub-index in "not disclosed" status through Q2 2026 despite over 10 GW of announced commitments.
What the detail tier ($35K/yr) shows this quarter
- Full pricing decomposition (capacity, energy, REC, escalator) for all Q≥3 deals
- 17-deal ledger including 9 watch-list deals (Q=1–2)
- Back-calculation workpapers: how Jefferies' $785M/yr Constellation revenue estimate maps to a $112/MWh implied TMI price; how Talen's $1.4B/yr full-ramp revenue implies ~$89.50/MWh across 1,920 MW
- Region-by-region breakdown including PJM zone-level splits
- 5-year forward curve with scenario analysis (base / high-AI / slow-AI)
- Deal tracker with 72-hour updates via REST API
- Q2 2026 analyst commentary (expected 6–8 page PDF at publication)
Methodology trust signals
| Metric | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|
| Data quality score this quarter | 72 / 100 |
| Deals included in main index | 5 (Q≥3) |
| Total contracted MW in main index | 7,100 MW |
| Watch-list deals (Q≤2) | 9 (see detail tier) |
| Outliers flagged separately | 0 |
| Corrections from prior quarter | v1.0 baseline — none |
| Disclosed $/MWh share | 0% (all analyst-inferred or back-calculated) |
The 0% directly-disclosed share is the industry's single biggest pricing opacity problem and the core reason NPPI exists. As more buyers and sellers file SEC disclosures with pricing detail (particularly AWS-Talen in Talen's 10-K filings and Meta in Constellation/Vistra 8-Ks), this share will rise.
Subscribe for Q3 2026 early access + full deal ledger: intelligence@reactorn.com
Next release: October 15, 2026 (Q3 2026 data)
Full methodology: PPA Index Methodology v1.0 →
Sources (primary filings, press releases, analyst notes)
- Constellation Energy, "Constellation to Launch Crane Clean Energy Center" (Sept 20, 2024)
- Bloomberg / Jefferies analyst estimates of MSFT-Constellation PPA pricing (Sept 25, 2024)
- Kairos Power + Google Master Plant Development Agreement release (Oct 14, 2024)
- Amazon + Energy Northwest + X-energy Cascade release (Oct 16, 2024)
- FERC order rejecting Talen-AWS ISA amendment (Nov 1, 2024; re-affirmed April 10, 2025)
- Constellation-Meta 20-year Clinton PPA release (June 3, 2025)
- Talen Energy Globe Newswire: expanded 1,920 MW AWS PPA (June 11, 2025)
- Vistra 2025-09 Form 8-K (Comanche Peak 1,200 MW PPA)
- NextEra Energy + Google Duane Arnold restart release (Oct 27, 2025)
- Holtec Palisades DOE LPO loan + Wolverine/Hoosier PPA disclosures (2024–2025)
- TerraPower + Meta 8-unit Natrium agreement release (Jan 9, 2026)
- Vistra Form 8-K + Vistra-Meta PJM release (Jan 9, 2026)
- DOE Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear (Nov 2023 + 2024 update)
- MIT CANES 2024 Total Cost Projection of Next AP1000
Detail-tier subscribers receive full URL citations and back-calculation workpapers.