NPPI Q2 2026
Weighted average across 5 main-index deals (Q≥3) totaling 7,100 contracted MW. SMR offtake remains "not disclosed" pending first public $/MWh from forward-start contracts.
ISO breakdown
Contract-type decomposition
| Segment | Weighted $/MWh | Deals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleet · operating | $95 | 3 | AWS-Talen, Meta-Constellation Clinton, Meta-Vistra PJM |
| Fleet · restart | $106 | 2 | MSFT-Constellation TMI, Google-NextEra Duane Arnold |
| SMR offtake | n/d | 5+ | No Q≥3 pricing disclosed; third-party range $65–100/MWh |
| New large build | n/d | 0 | No signed PPAs; DOE/MIT projects $78–97/MWh LCOE |
Ask the NPPI
Paste a draft PPA term sheet, ask for a comp band, or query any of the 17 tracked deals. Powered by Claude with the deal ledger as cached context.
Beta. Answers grounded in the Q2 2026 NPPI deal ledger. Not legal or financial advice. For high-stakes decisions, engage counsel + email intelligence@reactorn.com for a 20-min call.
PPA price calculator
Estimate a comp band for any nuclear PPA based on quality-scored ledger deals. Inputs: buyer type, plant type, MW, term, ISO. Outputs: $/MWh band + 3 closest comparable deals.
Open the dedicated calculator page for the full interactive form.
[ Open calculator → ]Live deal tracker
17 deals tracked · 5 main index (Q≥3) · 9 watch-list (Q≤2) · 3 corrections pending. Public tier shows 8 deals.
Source: ReactorN fleet index · illustrative status (static)
| Date | Buyer | Seller | Plant | Type | MW | Term | $/MWh | Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | Microsoft | Constellation | TMI / Crane | Restart | 835 | 20yr | $100–112 | A |
| 2024-10-14 | Kairos Power | Master 6-reactor PDA | SMR | 500 | — | n/d | B | |
| 2024-10-16 | Amazon | X-energy | Cascade (Energy NW) | SMR | 320 | — | n/d | B |
| 2025-06-03 | Meta | Constellation | Clinton | Fleet | 1,121 | 20yr | $95–110 | A |
| 2025-06-11 | AWS | Talen Energy | Susquehanna | Fleet | 1,920 | 17yr | $85–95 | A |
| 2025-09 | Confidential IG | Vistra | Comanche Peak | Fleet | 1,200 | 20yr | n/d | B |
| 2025-10-27 | NextEra | Duane Arnold restart | Restart | 615 | 25yr | $95–115 | A | |
| 2026-01-09 | Meta | Vistra | Perry+Davis-Besse+Beaver Valley | Fleet | 2,609 | 20yr | $85–105 | A |
Fleet operational telemetry
Per-unit operational performance for the reactors underwriting active PPAs — the foundation buyers need to underwrite a 15–25yr offtake. Capacity factor (rolling 30/90/365d), forced-outage trending, refueling-outage timing, license-renewal runway, and fuel-cycle position. Operating fleet shown; restart units pre-fuel.
Operating fleet — PPA-linked units
| Unit | Operator | ISO | MW | CF · 365d | CF trend 30/90/365 | Forced outage | Next refuel | License | To reload |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna 1&2 | Talen | PJM | 2,520 | 93.4% |
1.2% | Spring 2027 (U2) | 2042/44 · SLR filed | 14 mo | |
| Clinton | Constellation | MISO | 1,080 | 96.1% |
0.6% | Fall 2026 | 2046 (60yr) | 7 mo | |
| Comanche Peak 1&2 | Vistra | ERCOT | 2,400 | 91.2% |
2.4% | Fall 2026 (U1) | 2050/53 | 8 mo | |
| Perry | Vistra | PJM | 1,268 | 90.7% |
2.1% | Spring 2027 | 2046 | 13 mo | |
| Davis-Besse | Vistra | PJM | 894 | 92.0% |
1.5% | Spring 2026 (done) | 2037 · SLR pending | 19 mo | |
| Beaver Valley 1&2 | Vistra | PJM | 1,790 | 91.6% |
1.9% | Fall 2026 (U1) | 2036/47 | 9 mo | |
| TMI / Crane restart | Constellation | PJM | 835 | pre-fuel | — | — | Restart 2028 | relicense → 2054 | — |
| Duane Arnold restart | NextEra | MISO | 615 | pre-fuel | — | — | Restart Q1 2029 | relicense review | — |
| Palisades restart | Holtec | MISO | 805 | pre-fuel | — | — | 2026 (slipped) | relicense → 2051 | — |
Seed data — modeled from public NRC power-reactor status reports, EIA-860/923 generator data, and operator 10-K/10-Q disclosures. Every published figure traces to a primary filing and is quality-scored under Methodology v1.0. Live per-unit feed ships with the Fleet REST API.
PPA intelligence — contracted vs. merchant
The supply-side map hyperscaler procurement and utility commercial teams pay for: how much of each operator's nuclear fleet is locked under firm offtake, how much remains merchant (open to a PPA), and which capacity is stranded with no data-center buyer yet. This is where the signing windows are.
Operator offtake exposure
Constellation
Vistra
Talen Energy
NextEra
Holtec — stranded
Seed data — contracted volumes from disclosed 2024+ PPAs (FERC / SEC / press); merchant & regulated splits modeled from operator fleet disclosures. "Stranded" = firm nuclear supply with no announced data-center offtaker — the clearest near-term signing opportunity on the board.
Counterparty risk scoring
A single score a CFO can put in a memo. Every nuclear PPA is a 15–25yr bet on both sides: the buyer is underwriting the operator's ability to deliver power; the operator is underwriting the buyer's ability to pay in year 15. We score both sides across five dimensions — financial health, operational track record, regulatory standing, fuel-cycle exposure, and competitive position.
Operators (sell-side delivery risk)
| Operator | Score | Grade | Fin · Ops · Reg · Fuel · Comp | Watch note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation | 18 | A | Strongest balance sheet; largest pure-play; investment-grade. | |
| NextEra | 21 | A | Diversified; restart execution is the only open variable. | |
| Vistra | 29 | A− | Strong fleet CF; ERCOT merchant exposure adds variance. | |
| Talen Energy | 44 | B | Post-restructuring; smaller; single marquee asset concentration. | |
| Holtec | 61 | C+ | Private; first-ever restart execution risk; financing-dependent. |
Hyperscaler buyers (pay-side credit risk)
The question a utility CFO loses sleep over: "is this counterparty going to be able to pay us in year 15?" Off-balance-sheet compute financing is scored explicitly.
| Buyer | Score | Grade | Credit · Cash flow · Duration · Structure · Concentration | Watch note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | 6 | AAA | AAA-rated; self-funded capex; lowest counterparty risk on the board. | |
| Alphabet / Google | 8 | AAA | AAA-rated; durable cash flows; minimal structured financing. | |
| Amazon / AWS | 12 | AA | AA-rated; heavy capex cycle but ample coverage. | |
| Meta | 17 | A+ | Strong cash flow; rising SPV/JV financing on data-center build. | |
| Oracle | 38 | BBB | Higher leverage; OpenAI compute concentration ($300B order book). | |
| CoreWeave | 72 | B− | Neocloud; debt-covenant + refinancing watch; revenue concentration. | |
| xAI | 78 | B− | Private; unproven recurring cash flow; raise-dependent burn. |
Seed scores — composite 0–100 (lower = lower risk) modeled from public credit ratings, SEC filings, and disclosed financing structures. Aggregates public information only; not a credit rating and not investment advice.
Alerts · tracked-entity event feed
Push notifications when something material happens to an entity you track — an NRC action on a unit, a PPA approaching expiration, a fuel-cycle bottleneck developing, a counterparty downgrade, a capacity-auction clear. This is the feed that replaces 1–2 junior analysts whose entire job is monitoring news flow.
Recent alerts
Seed feed — illustrative of the alert types generated from NRC dockets, FERC/PUC actions, capacity-auction results, fuel-cycle signals, and counterparty financing disclosures. Live alerting ships with Intelligence Fleet.
Restart fleet status
Tracking US restart projects. Restart fleet is the fastest path to new nuclear capacity (months-to-2-years vs. 6–10 years for new build).
Three Mile Island / Crane
Palisades
Duane Arnold
4th restart candidate
Restart pricing premium over operating-fleet PPAs: ~$11/MWh. Rational spread given $1.6–2.0B restart capex amortized over 20–25 yr terms.
NRC SMR application tracker
Active NRC design certification and combined construction/operating license activity for advanced reactors. SMR construction is 24–36 months once licensed, vs 5–10 yrs for conventional.
Oklo (Aurora)
X-energy (Xe-100)
NuScale (VOYGR)
TerraPower (Natrium)
Kairos Power (KP-FHR)
Holtec (SMR-300)
PJM capacity gap
PJM is the market most exposed to AI data center demand. The capacity auction has cleared at record highs three years running.
Capacity Auction Clearing
Projected Shortfall
Data Center Load
Nuclear in PJM
Sources: PJM 2026/27 BRA results · PJM 2025 Load Forecast Report · Monitoring Analytics State of the Market 2025.
5-year forward curve
Three scenarios (base / high-AI / slow-AI) projecting weighted $/MWh through 2030 across fleet, restart, and SMR segments.
Methodology v1.0
Transparent by default. Methodology is public. All sources cited. Corrections published transparently. No operator/buyer/vendor preference. Subscriber-funded — zero vendor payments influence numbers.
Data sources
Quality scoring (1–5)
Weighting
Outlier handling
Publication schedule
Q2 2026 trust signals
Open-source PPA templates
Four standardized nuclear PPA templates. Free, MIT-style license. Reference frameworks — not legal advice. Have counsel review before execution.
Front-of-Meter Nuclear PPA
Grid-connected structure post-FERC's BTM rejection. Industry template after AWS-Talen restructure (June 2025). Utility-scale operating reactors with multi-state hyperscaler offtakers.
Behind-the-Meter Nuclear PPA
Co-location structure for direct connection between reactor and on-site data center. Pre-FERC-rejection model — useful for ERCOT, MISO, or with explicit ISO approval.
SMR Offtake Agreement
Forward-start structure for pre-COD reactors (NuScale, Oklo, X-energy, Kairos, TerraPower, Holtec). Includes development funding, milestone gates, FOAK construction risk.
Reactor Restart PPA
20–25 year structure for restart projects (TMI, Palisades, Duane Arnold). Capital-recovery-weighted pricing, DOE LPO loan integration, refurbishment milestone payments.
API access
REST API for programmatic access to the index, deal tracker, restart status, and NRC application data.