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PJM's 2026/27 BRA cleared at $329.17/MW-day across all four LDAs — the FERC-approved cap. That's +22% over 2025/26 ($269.92) and +1,038% over 2024/25 ($28.92). Two BRA cycles, eleven-fold price expansion. Driven entirely by AI data center demand outpacing capacity additions.
Hyperscaler procurement teams are no longer pricing against historical wholesale — they're pricing against the marginal cost of preventing a capacity shortfall. Every $5/MWh on a 1,500 MW deal is ~$66M/year in revenue impact. NPPI Q2 weighted at $97/MWh; restart segment at $106/MWh; SMR offtake remains undisclosed but the market consensus floor is creeping up from $65/MWh to $80/MWh territory.
1. AWS-Dominion North Anna still unverified in primary filings. Industry trackers report a 450 MW commitment but Dominion IR remains silent. Watch for Q2 10-Q filing.
2. Holtec Palisades restart — DOE LPO 18-month review check-in due this month. Cost overruns reportedly tracking 8-12% over original $1.52B loan. Restart timing slips matter for the Q3 NPPI restart sub-index.
3. Oklo Pike County OH Aurora campus — Meta's $1.2 GW commitment moves from "announced" to "definitive" if NRC pre-application milestone hits in May. Pricing remains undisclosed but watch for SEC 8-K from Oklo within 60 days.
— TD
Reactor N Intelligence
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